Model: ILM - ILM-EKF

    Name: EKF
    Abbreviation: ILM-EKF
    Owner: epiforecasts
    Team name: ILM
    Description: Extended Kalman filter based on reproduction equation
    Contributors: Stefan Heyder <stefan.heyder@tu-ilmenau.de>, Thomas Hotz <thomas.hotz@tu-ilmenau.de>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: primary
    Citation: Missing
    Methods: We use the reproduction equation to obtain a state space model whose states comprise incidences, the current reproduction number, the generation time distribution, as well as fraction of deaths by delay. An extended Kalman filter is used to fit this model and obtain forecasts. Quantiles for the latter are obtained from a log-normal distribution with mean and variance given by the prediction steps.
    Home: https://github.com/Stochastik-TU-Ilmenau
    Auxiliary data: Missing

    Forecasts (77)

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