| Name: | Kernel Density Estimation |
|---|---|
| Abbreviation: | KDE |
| Owner: | khoa |
| Team name: | ReichLab |
| Description: | Team name: ReichLab Team members: Evan L. Ray, Nicholas G. Reich Data source(s): ilinet Methods: This model uses kernel density estimation to estimate a distribution for each seasonal target and a generalized additive model (GAM) with a cyclical seasonal spline to estimate the x-week ahead incidence targets. Both models are based on observed values of that target in previous seasons within the region of interest. We used Gaussian kernels and the default KDE settings from the density function in the stats package for R to estimate the bandwidth parameter for each KDE fit. For the peak incidence target, we fit to log-transformed observations of historical peak incidence. For the onset week prediction target, we estimated the probability of no onset as the proportion of region-seasons in all regions in the training phase where no week in the season met the criteria for being a season onset. We use the mccv R package to fit the GAMs. All code used in estimation and prediction is available at https://github.com/reichlab/2017-2018-cdc-flu-contest |
| Contributors: | |
| License: | Other License |
| Notes: | |
| Citation: | None |
| Methods: | None |
| Home: | https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/master/model-forecasts/real-time-component-models/ReichLab_kde |
| Auxiliary data: | (No URL) |
| Timezero | Data Source | Upload Time | Issued at | Version |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-05-18 | EW21-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:41:00 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-05-11 | EW20-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:40:33 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-05-04 | EW19-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:40:02 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-04-27 | EW18-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:39:35 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-04-20 | EW17-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:39:09 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-04-13 | EW16-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:38:41 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-04-06 | EW15-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:38:15 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-03-30 | EW14-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:37:48 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-03-23 | EW13-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:37:21 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-03-16 | EW12-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:36:54 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-03-09 | EW11-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:36:29 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-03-02 | EW10-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:36:03 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-02-24 | EW09-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:35:37 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-02-17 | EW08-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:35:00 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-02-10 | EW07-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:34:19 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-02-03 | EW06-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:33:50 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-01-27 | EW05-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:33:22 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-01-20 | EW04-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:32:53 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-01-13 | EW03-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:32:26 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-01-06 | EW02-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:31:58 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-12-30 | EW01-2020-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:30:29 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-12-23 | EW52-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:30:03 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-12-16 | EW51-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:29:37 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-12-09 | EW50-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:29:13 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-12-02 | EW49-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:28:49 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-11-25 | EW48-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:28:27 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-11-18 | EW47-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:28:04 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-11-11 | EW46-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:27:41 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-11-04 | EW45-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:27:18 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-10-28 | EW44-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:26:54 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-10-21 | EW43-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:26:31 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-10-14 | EW42-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:26:09 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-10-07 | EW41-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:25:47 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-09-30 | EW40-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-10 23:25:25 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-05-20 | EW21-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:43:02 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-05-13 | EW20-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:43:00 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-05-06 | EW19-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:58 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-04-29 | EW18-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:56 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-04-22 | EW17-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:54 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-04-15 | EW16-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:53 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-04-08 | EW15-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:51 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-04-01 | EW14-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:50 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-03-25 | EW13-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:49 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-03-18 | EW12-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:47 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-03-11 | EW11-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:46 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-03-04 | EW10-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:44 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-02-25 | EW09-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:43 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-02-18 | EW08-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:42 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-02-11 | EW07-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:40 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-02-04 | EW06-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:39 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-01-28 | EW05-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:37 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-01-21 | EW04-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:36 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-01-14 | EW03-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:34 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-01-07 | EW02-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:33 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-12-31 | EW01-2019-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:31 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-12-24 | EW52-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:30 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-12-17 | EW51-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:28 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-12-10 | EW50-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:27 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-12-03 | EW49-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:25 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-11-26 | EW48-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:24 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-11-19 | EW47-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:22 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-11-12 | EW46-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:20 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-11-05 | EW45-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:19 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-10-29 | EW44-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:17 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-10-22 | EW43-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:15 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-10-15 | EW42-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:13 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-10-08 | EW41-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:12 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-10-01 | EW40-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-25 01:42:10 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-04-30 | EW18-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:29:19 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-04-23 | EW17-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:29:17 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-04-16 | EW16-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:29:16 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-04-09 | EW15-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:29:15 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-04-02 | EW14-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:29:13 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-03-26 | EW13-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:29:12 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-03-19 | EW12-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:29:11 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-03-12 | EW11-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:29:09 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-03-05 | EW10-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:29:08 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-02-26 | EW09-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:29:07 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-02-19 | EW08-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:29:05 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-02-12 | EW07-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:29:04 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-02-05 | EW06-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:29:03 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-29 | EW05-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:29:01 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-22 | EW04-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:29:00 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-15 | EW03-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:28:58 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-08 | EW02-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:28:57 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-01 | EW01-2018-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:28:56 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-12-25 | EW52-2017-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:28:54 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-12-18 | EW51-2017-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:28:53 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-12-11 | EW50-2017-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:28:51 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-12-04 | EW49-2017-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:28:50 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-11-27 | EW48-2017-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:28:49 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-11-20 | EW47-2017-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:28:47 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-11-13 | EW46-2017-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:28:46 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-11-06 | EW45-2017-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:28:44 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-10-30 | EW44-2017-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:28:43 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-10-23 | EW43-2017-ReichLab_kde.csv | 2020-03-12 03:28:41 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC |