Model: LUcompUncertLab - LUcompUncertLab-chimera

    Name: chimera
    Abbreviation: LUcompUncertLab-chimera
    Owner: lshandross
    Team name: LUcompUncertLab
    Description: KM27 model trained on pct positive,HHS hosps,Human judgment
    Contributors: Tom McAndrew (Lehigh University) <mcandrew@lehigh.edu>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: Designated model // Data inputs: Daily flu hospitalizations,Daily percent positive cases,metaculus human judgment forecasts // Team funding: CSTE/CDC
    Citation:
    Methods: 2023-10-11: SEIRH model variant was fit bc KM27 model was not yet complete. // 2023-10-12: KM27 model is completed and ready for training/submission for the following week. // 2023-10-18: KM27 model was incorrect last week. i spent the entire week correcting the model. There is a final bug in the method i use to aggregate from day forecasts to week forecasts. I will need to solve this bug before the next submission date. // 2023-11-01: Corrected KM27 and added in knowledge about flu: R0 is constrained to be between 1.1 and 2.5, vaccine proportion is between 0.2 and 0.8. Generatioanl interval is Neg Bin and on average 3.6 days. / Changed from Normal observational process to GammaPoisson. The GP is good but very computationally slow. / Still cranky about how sensitive this model is to changes. This round ill try to focus on assigning seasons to distinct clusters. / 2023-11-08:Added in priors for peak intensity and timing, and for the first two weeks of the season (MMWR 40 and 41). This adds stability to the model and speed. // 2023-11-23:Found two major bugs in the code. One is frustrating and the other very subtle. First bug was training on hospitalization data the same as last year. i missed the message about a change in the hosp data and so have been training my model on the wrong data up until now. The second bug is a subtle fix in the code that took some time to find. // 2023-12-09: Added back QO data, truncated to be two weeks before the forecast submission date. Forecasts look ok except for FIP=72. i'll need to investigate. // 2023-12-16: Ran versions without and without the QO data. For the majority of locations i chose the model that included QO data. There were 3 locations, 30,37,56 where i thought the model without QO data was better and so chose those forecasts instead. // 2023-12-30: Not much to report. Still running a few slightly different versions of the model and then hand picking which model to submit for which location." // 2024-03-20:Not in love with Loc 2 but otherwise forecasts look ok"
    Home: https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (30)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2024-04-27 forecast-738179ff33d0.json 2024-04-25 11:22:32 UTC 2024-04-25 11:22:32 UTC
    2024-04-20 forecast-734e4717c087.json 2024-04-18 11:22:22 UTC 2024-04-18 11:22:22 UTC
    2024-04-13 forecast-73e312e53afa.json 2024-04-12 11:22:42 UTC 2024-04-12 11:22:42 UTC
    2024-04-06 forecast-73a779e89c5d.json 2024-04-04 11:22:22 UTC 2024-04-04 11:22:22 UTC
    2024-03-30 forecast-758270e2644e.json 2024-03-28 11:26:10 UTC 2024-03-28 11:26:10 UTC
    2024-03-23 forecast-75553741acb.json 2024-03-21 11:26:10 UTC 2024-03-21 11:26:10 UTC
    2024-03-16 forecast-75a45a475158.json 2024-03-14 11:25:02 UTC 2024-03-14 11:25:02 UTC
    2024-03-09 forecast-75e26d24940f.json 2024-03-07 11:25:20 UTC 2024-03-07 11:25:20 UTC
    2024-03-02 forecast-75202aa8cde1.json 2024-03-01 15:33:13 UTC 2024-03-01 15:33:13 UTC
    2024-06-01 (No data)
    2024-05-25 (No data)
    2024-05-18 (No data)
    2024-05-11 (No data)
    2024-05-04 forecast-73ae51838356.json 2024-05-02 11:22:46 UTC 2024-05-02 11:22:46 UTC
    2024-02-24 forecast-74e74b1bf655.json 2024-02-22 11:24:57 UTC 2024-02-22 11:24:57 UTC
    2024-02-17 forecast-754721bb0db8.json 2024-02-15 11:24:42 UTC 2024-02-15 11:24:42 UTC
    2024-02-10 forecast-74e8181660a7.json 2024-02-08 11:25:11 UTC 2024-02-08 11:25:11 UTC
    2024-02-03 forecast-750e1e969b06.json 2024-02-02 11:24:23 UTC 2024-02-02 11:24:23 UTC
    2024-01-27 forecast-756e5bc82906.json 2024-01-25 11:26:13 UTC 2024-01-25 11:26:13 UTC
    2024-01-20 forecast-74f853130d7d.json 2024-01-18 11:25:02 UTC 2024-01-18 11:25:02 UTC
    2024-01-13 forecast-7520131c29f.json 2024-01-11 11:25:08 UTC 2024-01-11 11:25:08 UTC
    2024-01-06 forecast-74f9c9076f9.json 2024-01-04 11:25:04 UTC 2024-01-04 11:25:04 UTC
    2023-12-30 forecast-74df5ebf6f70.json 2023-12-28 11:24:56 UTC 2023-12-28 11:24:56 UTC
    2023-12-23 forecast-74d1689fefe8.json 2023-12-21 11:25:12 UTC 2023-12-21 11:25:12 UTC
    2023-12-16 forecast-75bc8bbfccc.json 2023-12-14 11:25:09 UTC 2023-12-14 11:25:09 UTC
    2023-12-09 forecast-7532357918a.json 2023-12-08 14:56:39 UTC 2023-12-08 14:56:39 UTC
    2023-12-02 forecast-65b01fc63a44.json 2023-12-07 15:03:39 UTC 2023-12-07 15:03:39 UTC
    2023-11-25 forecast-44845fe231df.json 2023-11-28 16:24:53 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:53 UTC
    2023-11-18 forecast-44845d5c19f5.json 2023-11-28 16:24:51 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:51 UTC
    2023-11-11 forecast-44845ed06157.json 2023-11-28 16:24:49 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:49 UTC
    2023-11-04 forecast-4484669f1409.json 2023-11-28 16:24:47 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:47 UTC
    2023-10-28 forecast-44842f0c38e8.json 2023-11-28 16:24:45 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:45 UTC
    2023-10-21 forecast-4484bbb1cca.json 2023-11-28 16:24:43 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:43 UTC
    2023-10-14 forecast-44842c2a5e80.json 2023-11-28 16:24:41 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:41 UTC
    2023-10-07 (No data)