Project: Election Forecasts Config
| Summary: | Seven models, 945 forecasts, 76,224 predictions |
|---|---|
| Owner: | nick |
| Model Owners: | ydh28, nick |
| Visibility | Public |
| Description: | This project stores forecasts from multiple election forecast sites, including FiveThirtyEight and the Economist, for ease of access and comparison. |
| Home: | https://reichlab.io |
| Core data: | https://zoltardata.com/ |
| Truth Data: | (No truth data) |
| Visualization: | (Please configure options to view visualizations) (interactive visualization of all forecasts in the project [beta]) |
| Summary: | Summary (interactive visualization/tabular summary of all - or a subset of - forecasts in the project) |
| Explorer: | Explorer (summarizes the subset of the most recent forecasts from each team) |
| Download: | Download (interface to start a query for any forecast data in the project) |
Models (7)
| Abbreviation | Team | # Forecasts | Oldest | Newest | Upload time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ourprogress | The Progress Campaign | 9 | 2020-10-20 | 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-03 22:39:04 UTC |
| jhk | JHK | 248 | 2020-03-01 | 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-03 22:38:59 UTC |
| economist | The Economist | 248 | 2020-03-01 | 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-03 22:38:43 UTC |
| 538_deluxe | FiveThirtyEight | 95 | 2020-08-01 | 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-03 22:38:35 UTC |
| 538_classic | FiveThirtyEight | 95 | 2020-08-01 | 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-03 22:38:31 UTC |
| 538_lite | FiveThirtyEight | 95 | 2020-08-01 | 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-03 22:38:28 UTC |
| 538_pp | FiveThirtyEight | 155 | 2020-06-01 | 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-03 22:38:18 UTC |
Units (93)
| Abbreviation | Name |
|---|---|
| TX-sen | TX-sen |
| AR-sen | AR-sen |
| NE-3-pres | NE-3-pres |
| NE-2-pres | NE-2-pres |
| NE-1-pres | NE-1-pres |
| ME-2-pres | ME-2-pres |
| ME-1-pres | ME-1-pres |
| DC-pres | DC-pres |
| GA-sen-sp | GA-sen-sp |
| WY-sen | WY-sen |
| WY-pres | WY-pres |
| WI-pres | WI-pres |
| WV-sen | WV-sen |
| WV-pres | WV-pres |
| WA-pres | WA-pres |
| VA-sen | VA-sen |
| VA-pres | VA-pres |
| VT-pres | VT-pres |
| UT-pres | UT-pres |
| TX-pres | TX-pres |
| TN-sen | TN-sen |
| TN-pres | TN-pres |
| SD-sen | SD-sen |
| SD-pres | SD-pres |
| SC-sen | SC-sen |
| SC-pres | SC-pres |
| RI-sen | RI-sen |
| RI-pres | RI-pres |
| PA-pres | PA-pres |
| OR-sen | OR-sen |
| OR-pres | OR-pres |
| OK-sen | OK-sen |
| OK-pres | OK-pres |
| OH-pres | OH-pres |
| ND-pres | ND-pres |
| NC-sen | NC-sen |
| NC-pres | NC-pres |
| NY-pres | NY-pres |
| NM-sen | NM-sen |
| NM-pres | NM-pres |
| NJ-sen | NJ-sen |
| NJ-pres | NJ-pres |
| NH-sen | NH-sen |
| NH-pres | NH-pres |
| NV-pres | NV-pres |
| NE-sen | NE-sen |
| NE-pres | NE-pres |
| MT-sen | MT-sen |
| MT-pres | MT-pres |
| MO-pres | MO-pres |
| MS-sen | MS-sen |
| MS-pres | MS-pres |
| MN-sen | MN-sen |
| MN-pres | MN-pres |
| MI-sen | MI-sen |
| MI-pres | MI-pres |
| MA-sen | MA-sen |
| MA-pres | MA-pres |
| MD-pres | MD-pres |
| ME-sen | ME-sen |
| ME-pres | ME-pres |
| LA-sen | LA-sen |
| LA-pres | LA-pres |
| KY-sen | KY-sen |
| KY-pres | KY-pres |
| KS-sen | KS-sen |
| KS-pres | KS-pres |
| IA-sen | IA-sen |
| IA-pres | IA-pres |
| IN-pres | IN-pres |
| IL-sen | IL-sen |
| IL-pres | IL-pres |
| ID-sen | ID-sen |
| ID-pres | ID-pres |
| HI-pres | HI-pres |
| GA-sen | GA-sen |
| GA-pres | GA-pres |
| FL-pres | FL-pres |
| DE-sen | DE-sen |
| DE-pres | DE-pres |
| CT-pres | CT-pres |
| CO-sen | CO-sen |
| CO-pres | CO-pres |
| CA-pres | CA-pres |
| AR-pres | AR-pres |
| AZ-sen | AZ-sen |
| AZ-pres | AZ-pres |
| AK-sen | AK-sen |
| AK-pres | AK-pres |
| AL-sen | AL-sen |
| AL-pres | AL-pres |
| US-sen | US-sen |
| US-pres | US-pres |
Targets (6)
| Target Group | # Targets | Type | Outcome Variable | Step ahead? | Example Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ec_win_dem | 1 | nominal | Electoral College win Democrats | “ec_win_dem” | |
| ev_won_dem | 1 | continuous | number of electoral votes won by Democrats | “ev_won_dem” | |
| popvote_win_dem | 1 | binary | popular vote win Democrats | “popvote_win_dem” | |
| senate_seats_won_dem | 1 | discrete | number of Senate seats won by Democrats | “senate_seats_won_dem” | |
| senate_win_dem | 1 | binary | Senate win (control) for Democrats | “senate_win_dem” | |
| voteshare_dem_twoparty | 1 | continuous | share of two-party (D/R) popular vote for Democrats | “voteshare_dem_twoparty” |
Time zeros (248)
| Time Zero | Data Version Date | # Forecasts | Starts Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-01 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-02 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-03 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-04 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-05 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-06 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-07 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-08 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-09 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-10 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-11 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-12 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-13 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-14 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-15 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-16 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-17 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-18 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-19 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-20 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-21 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-22 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-23 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-24 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-25 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-26 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-27 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-28 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-29 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-30 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-03-31 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-04-01 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-04-02 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-04-03 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2020-04-04 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
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| 2020-08-01 | (No data version date) | 6 | |
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| 2020-10-01 | (No data version date) | 6 | |
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| 2020-10-19 | (No data version date) | 6 | |
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| 2020-10-21 | (No data version date) | 6 | |
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| 2020-11-01 | (No data version date) | 5 | |
| 2020-11-02 | (No data version date) | 7 | |
| 2020-11-03 | (No data version date) | 7 |