Project: Aggregating Statistical Models and Human Judgement Config

    Summary: Three models, 0 forecasts, 0 predictions
    Owner: allicodi
    Model Owners: allicodi, mcandrew
    Time Interval Type Month
    Visibility Public
    Description: This project aims to provide public health officials metaforecasts---a combination of probabilistic predictions from computational models, subject matter experts, and trained forecasters---of the COVID-19 outbreak.

    A consensus forecast is an equally weighted combination of probabilistic predictions from individuals. We included consensus forecasts from individual forecasters on Metaculus ( and from Good Judgment Open ( A metaforecast is also included: an equally weighted combination of consensus forecasts and of the COVID-19 Forecasthub ensemble.

    Each month individuals contribute forecasts for incident cases, deaths, hospitalizations, and cumulative number of vaccines at the US national level. Additional targets for forecasting depend on public health needs. Individuals can produce forecasts at the beginning of each month until the middle of the month.

    Files are named as YYYYMMDD_YYYYMMDD.csv and corresponds to the year (YYYY), month (MM), and day (DD) forecasting began and the year, month, and day forecasting ended. All forecasting ends at 2PM EST.
    Core data:
    Truth Data: (No truth data)
    Features: Project: Explorer. Forecasts: Summary, Download.

    Models (3)

    Abbreviation Team # Forecasts Oldest Newest Upload time
    Metaforecast Computational Uncertainty Laboratory 0
    GJOCon Computational Uncertainty Laboratory 0
    MetaculusCon Computational Uncertainty Laboratory 0

    Units (0)

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    Targets (0)

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    Time zeros (0)

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